No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $184.53K
- Potential payout
- $203.9K
- Potential profit
- $19.37K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $22.39K
Polymarket Trader
onekey09
0x45b39e1f71e47fd4afe4b988ffad690b644735bc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $365.2K
- Realized PnL
- $156.77K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Current value
- $71.42K
- Potential payout
- $76.59K
- Potential profit
- $5.17K
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $191.47
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $67.14K
- Potential payout
- $67.65K
- Potential profit
- $507.37
- User PnL
- $2.7K
No position
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $19.92K
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $80
- User PnL
- $420
No position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18K
- Potential profit
- $18K
- User PnL
- -$17.56K
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $13.1K
- Potential payout
- $13.18K
- Potential profit
- $72.46
- User PnL
- $945.1
No position
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $3.41K
- Potential payout
- $3.45K
- Potential profit
- $39.69
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $170.95
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $2.92K
- Potential payout
- $2.95K
- Potential profit
- $25.07
- User PnL
- $151.92
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $390.59
- Potential payout
- $2.52K
- Potential profit
- $2.13K
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$466.78
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $1.76K
- Potential payout
- $1.77K
- Potential profit
- $7.95
- User PnL
- $85.71
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $380.73
- Potential payout
- $404.39
- Potential profit
- $23.66
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $28.71
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $223.6
- Potential payout
- $235
- Potential profit
- $11.4
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $23.85
Yes position
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $164.89
- Potential profit
- $164.89
- User PnL
- -$162.15
No position
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$25.5
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.84
- Potential profit
- $30.84
- User PnL
- -$28.84
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.99K
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.74K
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $15.02K
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.72K
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.73K
Yes position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.38K
No position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.17K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.84K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.34K
No position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
Ends Feb 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.17K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.47K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.18K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.89K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.27K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.03K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.72K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.62K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.61K
No position
US strike on Mexico by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.56K
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31K
No position
Trump out as President by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31K
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 99.3% 1,307.36 shares
- Starmer out by April 30, 2026?No 99.6% 3,465.84 shares
- Russian strike on Poland by June 30?No 94.2% 893.08 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 99.1% 1,292 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?No 99.9% 215.25 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Yes 2% 100 shares
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Yes 2% 100 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No 99.7% 1,521 shares
- Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027?Yes 98.9% 10 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?No 99.8% 100 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?No 99.8% 100 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?No 99.4% 5 shares