Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $11.38K
- Potential payout
- $225.4K
- Potential profit
- $214.02K
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- $2.61K
Polymarket Trader
orangeapplejuice
0x45b6c04fd8a4cb7bbd44217a87261ab5707f676f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.08K
- Realized PnL
- $36.96K
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.36K
- Potential profit
- $28.36K
- User PnL
- -$1.45K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.17K
- Potential profit
- $19.17K
- User PnL
- -$1.31K
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.56K
- Potential profit
- $12.56K
- User PnL
- -$99.99
Yes position
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.92K
- Potential profit
- $11.92K
- User PnL
- -$199.99
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.25K
- Potential profit
- $11.25K
- User PnL
- -$233.74
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.18K
- Potential profit
- $11.18K
- User PnL
- -$99.93
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- User PnL
- -$96
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.88K
- Potential profit
- $5.88K
- User PnL
- -$99.99
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.46K
- Potential profit
- $3.46K
- User PnL
- -$199.98
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.7%
- Current value
- $306.68
- Potential payout
- $3.18K
- Potential profit
- $2.87K
- Multiplier
- 10.36x
- User PnL
- $56.8
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.7%
- Current value
- $253.79
- Potential payout
- $1.23K
- Potential profit
- $975.21
- Multiplier
- 4.84x
- User PnL
- -$46.09
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $139
- Potential payout
- $139
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $51.43
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.01K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.01K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.5K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.27K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.24K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $361.4
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.2
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $206.68
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $199
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $195.22
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $193.63
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.84
Yes position
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.41
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $73.07
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $48.22
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.03
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.28
Yes position
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.51
Yes position
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.53
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$15.08
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 29.1% 25,259.78 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Yes 0.3% 12,499.99 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Yes 69.6% 4,194.96 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Yes 79.4% 1,220.92 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Yes 76.8% 826.92 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Yes 75% 212.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 66.7% 33,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No 77% 8,499.99 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 14.7% 19,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 56.6% 16,700 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 18.5% 19,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 61% 8,700 shares