Polymarket Trader

Nobody23041

0x45cc78578b082e89f21e847a3afec8d28cd26400

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.2K
Realized PnL: $56.91K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $155.75
Potential payout: $8.42K
Potential profit: $8.26K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: $26.93

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.1%
Current value: $1.08K
Potential payout: $6.73K
Potential profit: $5.65K
Multiplier: 6.23x
User PnL: $13.78

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.91K
Potential profit: $5.91K
User PnL: -$2.46K

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $2.4K
Potential payout: $3.78K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $11.86

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.38K
Potential profit: $3.38K
User PnL: -$1.18K

No position

Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $1.99K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $11
User PnL: $149

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $45.05
Potential payout: $1.84K
Potential profit: $1.79K
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.48K
Potential profit: $1.48K
User PnL: -$650.57

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $431.23
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $750.22
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$154.05

No position

Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $14.17
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $1.04K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$85.32

No position

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $819.04
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $198.4
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $115.53

Yes position

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $192.46
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $820.51
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$348

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $875
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $125
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $25

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $105
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $895
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$55

Yes position

Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $91.98
Potential payout: $897.39
Potential profit: $805.41
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: -$3.11

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $754.98
Potential profit: $754.98
User PnL: -$84.6

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $624.98
Potential profit: $624.98
User PnL: -$30.6

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $600
User PnL: -$21

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $526.89
Potential profit: $526.89
User PnL: -$248.03

No position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $505
Potential profit: $505
User PnL: -$85.85

Yes position

Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$27.5

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$19.5

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $462.01
Potential profit: $462.01
User PnL: -$57.55

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $417.81
Potential profit: $417.6
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$332.44

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Republican House and Democratic Senate after U.S. 2022 Midterms?

Ends Nov 8, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1261795.97x
User PnL: $8.15K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6, 2023?

Ends Jan 6, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1526430.04x
User PnL: $7.53K

Yes position

Trump sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Jul 11, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.91K

Yes position

Will Bitcoin (BTC) reach its all-time high in 2022?

Ends Dec 31, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1650811.60x
User PnL: $3.02K

Yes position

Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.42K

Yes position

Republican House and Democratic Senate after U.S. 2022 Midterms?

Ends Nov 8, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.4K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023?

Ends Dec 31, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.29K

No position

Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.14K

Yes position

Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 200,000 again by August 1, 2022?

Ends Aug 8, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 759556.93x
User PnL: $2.04K

No position

Will Gay Marriage pass the U.S. Senate?

Ends Dec 31, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 2197113.81x
User PnL: $2.03K

Yes position

Will $ETH fall below $1,000 by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 666682.91x
User PnL: $2.03K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.93K

No position

Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.81K

No position

Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus?

Ends Jan 15, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78K

Yes position

Democratic sweep?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.72K

Yes position

Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56K

No position

Kamala campaign accepts crypto donations before September?

Ends Aug 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.4K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38K

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32K

No position

Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before inauguration?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26K

No position

Trump positive favorability on March 1?

Ends Mar 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25K

Yes position

Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24K

Yes position

Biden COVID free by next Friday?

Ends Jul 26, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18K

No position

Will $BTC reach $32,500 by July 14?

Ends Jul 14, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 7% 400 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 8% 1,200 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 18.1% 300 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

No 80% 400 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 51% 610 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Yes 69% 463 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 51% 50 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 51% 550 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Yes 69% 500 shares
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

No 64% 706 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 56% 2,155.31 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Yes 62% 13 shares