Polymarket Trader

usernamec

0x45d9598ad87c3acd52cef0aef233c5d1818d539e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $601.42
Realized PnL: $9.12
Win rate: 68.8%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 16
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $19.12
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $569.12
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: $9.12

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.6%
Current value: $51.67
Potential payout: $264.29
Potential profit: $212.62
Multiplier: 5.12x
User PnL: -$3.33

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $60.99
Potential payout: $259.51
Potential profit: $198.53
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$4.01

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $39.55
Potential payout: $214.35
Potential profit: $174.8
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $14.55

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130.66
Potential profit: $130.66
User PnL: -$55

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $50.06
Potential payout: $128.53
Potential profit: $78.47
Multiplier: 2.57x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $116.61
Potential payout: $121.47
Potential profit: $4.86
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $6.61

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $4.29
Potential payout: $108.7
Potential profit: $104.4
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $10.49
Potential payout: $89.29
Potential profit: $78.79
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $0.49

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $62.86
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $8.57
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $12.86

No position

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $55.33
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $11.33
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $5.33

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $8.81
Potential payout: $64.52
Potential profit: $55.71
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$1.19

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.6%
Current value: $51.93
Potential payout: $54.35
Potential profit: $2.42
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $1.93

Yes position

Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $8.91
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $34.57
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$1.09

No position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $6.25
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $35.42
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$3.75

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $4.94
Potential payout: $39.37
Potential profit: $34.43
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.9%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $37.74
Potential profit: $28.74
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.37
Potential profit: $33.37
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $20.14
Potential payout: $28.99
Potential profit: $8.84
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $28.57
User PnL: -$20

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.14
Potential profit: $26.14
User PnL: -$4.7

Yes position

Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $23.81
User PnL: -$5

No position

Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $20.47
Potential payout: $23.53
Potential profit: $3.06
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0.47

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.53

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.7

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.79

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.78

No position

Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.26

No position

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

No position

World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Yes 46% 2.17 shares
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Yes 7% 14.29 shares
GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Yes 19% 5.26 shares
US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Yes 14% 7.14 shares
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 4.6% 108.7 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

Up 29% 17.24 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

Up 94% 5.32 shares
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?

Yes 32% 7.81 shares
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?

Yes 21% 23.81 shares
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Yes 23.7% 12.65 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Down 31% 16.13 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Down 29% 17.24 shares