Polymarket Trader

merch

0x45e856f0023259664606b6c370e82d072b24cc6c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $18.33K
Realized PnL: $9.2K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $4.52K
Potential payout: $4.53K
Potential profit: $6.8
User PnL: $549.05

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.54K
Potential profit: $3.54K
User PnL: -$3.17K

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.75K
Potential profit: $2.75K
User PnL: -$2.53K

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $2.49K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: $305

Yes position

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $1.77K
Potential payout: $2.16K
Potential profit: $388.37
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $147.64

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.72K
Potential profit: $1.72K
User PnL: -$1.58K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $1.38K
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $216
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $285

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $1.53K
Potential payout: $1.54K
Potential profit: $8.47
User PnL: $254.34

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.35K
User PnL: -$1.31K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $711
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $189
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $59

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $758
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $42
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $30

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $772.72
Potential payout: $776.99
Potential profit: $4.27
User PnL: $86.87

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $754.08
Potential payout: $757.49
Potential profit: $3.41
User PnL: $178.39

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $744.93
Potential profit: $744.93
User PnL: -$319.26

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $338.94
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $261.06
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $68.94

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $519
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $81
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $9

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $493.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $6.75
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $128.25

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $402.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $97.5
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $2.5

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $499.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $0.75
User PnL: $79.25

No position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$247.5

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $399
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $1
User PnL: $19

No position

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $352
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $48
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $84

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.1%
Current value: $312.19
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $87.8
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $49.6

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $316.63
Potential payout: $349.87
Potential profit: $33.24
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $63.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump pick Kash Patel for Director of the FBI?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1K

No position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $948.81

Yes position

Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $680.25

Yes position

Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $575.07

Yes position

Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?

Ends Oct 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $504.38

Crawford position

Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $461.19

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $444.83

Indiana position

Oregon vs. Indiana

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $418

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $378.49

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $369.4

No position

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $324

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.9

Yes position

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.97

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Ends Sep 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $266.19

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $263.99

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $253.61

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $241

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.54

Yes position

Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $227.96

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.24

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.2

Bengals position

Cardinals vs. Bengals

Ends Dec 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.36

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Spread: Croatia (-1.5)

Panama 76% 54.99 shares
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)

Panama 76% 100 shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?

No 40.8% 840.78 shares
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Yes 98% 253 shares
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Yes 97.6% 102 shares
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Yes 97.5% 125 shares
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Yes 97% 266.69 shares
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Yes 80.4% 50 shares
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Yes 26% 121.19 shares
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Yes 30.3% 460.78 shares
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Yes 35% 20 shares
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Yes 45% 300 shares