Yes position
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $3.48
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.52
Polymarket Trader
arenzoar
@AArz03
0x4600c3cc281112d4e615d1b75b9586ed03ef78aa
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $316.69
- Realized PnL
- $3.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $11.97
- Potential payout
- $920.52
- Potential profit
- $908.55
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- $1.97
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $46.81
- Potential payout
- $875
- Potential profit
- $828.19
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$23.19
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Current value
- $86.56
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $538.44
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$13.44
No position
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $402.36
- Potential profit
- $402.36
- User PnL
- -$27
Yes position
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $1.83
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $331.5
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$28.17
Yes position
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $215.84
- Potential profit
- $215.84
- User PnL
- -$65
Yes position
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $40.4
- Potential payout
- $202.49
- Potential profit
- $162.1
- Multiplier
- 5.01x
- User PnL
- -$19.6
Yes position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $5.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $194.1
- Multiplier
- 33.90x
- User PnL
- -$34.1
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $2.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $197.7
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$27.7
Yes position
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $28.56
- Potential payout
- $196.97
- Potential profit
- $168.41
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$21.44
Yes position
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $54.79
- Potential payout
- $192.31
- Potential profit
- $137.52
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$45.21
Yes position
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.28
- Potential payout
- $185.19
- Potential profit
- $184.91
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$9.72
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $17.22
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $93.89
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $7.22
Yes position
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $110.89
- Potential profit
- $110.89
- User PnL
- -$68.54
Yes position
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $11.96
- Potential payout
- $104
- Potential profit
- $92.04
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$14.04
Yes position
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75.76
- Potential profit
- $75.76
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $75
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $4.64
- Potential payout
- $71.32
- Potential profit
- $66.68
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$15.36
Yes position
Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.52
- Potential profit
- $53.52
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.5
- Potential profit
- $34.5
- User PnL
- -$4.83
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $987.09
Yes position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $720.78
Yes position
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $475.23
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.24
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.34
Yes position
Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.24
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.76
Yes position
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.48
Yes position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.19
No position
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.67
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.15
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.93
Spain position
UEFA Nations League: Spain vs. France (To Advance)
Ends Jun 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.72
No position
Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.58
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.14
No position
Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.56
Yes position
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.12
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.55
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.48
Yes position
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.57
No position
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.54
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63
No position
US forces enter Iran by February 28?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the No. 7 Toyota Racing win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans?Yes 47.2% 59.35 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?Yes 68% 29.41 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?Yes 67% 42.6 shares
- Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes 28% 71.32 shares
- Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes 9% 111.11 shares
- Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes 1.1% 920.52 shares
- Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes 0.7% 1,390.44 shares
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes 18.6% 107.38 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?Yes 51.4% 38.88 shares
- Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Yes 98.8% 172.41 shares
- Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes 36% 11.97 shares
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes 42.1% 95.11 shares