Vger

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $3.6K
Potential profit: $3.6K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$113.2

No position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $1.06K
Potential payout: $2.49K
Potential profit: $1.43K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $407.93

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $232.55
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.46K
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: $32.55

Yes position

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.61
Potential payout: $643.8
Potential profit: $642.19
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$198.39

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.76
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $586.47
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$198.23

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $293.37
Potential payout: $510.2
Potential profit: $216.84
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $43.37

No position

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $38.37
Potential payout: $426.35
Potential profit: $387.98
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$61.63

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $399.69
Potential profit: $399.49
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$19.8

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $50
Potential payout: $344.83
Potential profit: $294.83
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $51.56
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $260.94
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $1.56

Yes position

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $300.6
Potential profit: $300.45
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$49.85

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $50
Potential payout: $256.41
Potential profit: $206.41
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $217.53
Potential profit: $217.53
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $115
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $85
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $97.37
Potential payout: $175.44
Potential profit: $78.07
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$2.63

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $103.87
Potential payout: $135.77
Potential profit: $31.91
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $3.87

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $90.74
Potential payout: $123.46
Potential profit: $32.72
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$9.26

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $2.57
Potential payout: $79.19
Potential profit: $76.62
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$12.43

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70.8
Potential profit: $70.8
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $16.75
Potential payout: $47.17
Potential profit: $30.42
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$8.25

No position

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Ends Jan 20, 2029

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $6.04
Potential payout: $18.87
Potential profit: $12.83
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$3.96

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $377.71

No position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $300

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $177.85

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.33

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.91

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.69

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.64

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.93

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.11

No position

U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.24

Yes position

Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.07

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.37

No position

Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 89%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $22.4

No position

Will Meta be forced to sell Instagram or WhatsApp in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.85

Yes position

Will John Thune attend Dick Cheney's funeral?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.02

Yes position

Israel military action against Iran before July?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.23

Yes position

Trump announces additional funding cuts to Harvard before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.52

Yes position

Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.49

Yes position

Will Matt Van Epps win TN-7 Special Election?

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.11

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $9.3

No position

Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.19

Yes position

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.09

No position

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?