Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $122.88
- Potential payout
- $744.7
- Potential profit
- $621.82
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$162.54
Polymarket Trader
fa910
0x46164533c59b3c823ba87e0e485ab9a7afffa910
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.23K
- Realized PnL
- $5.39K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $388.2
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $11.8
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $20.2
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $363.81
- Potential payout
- $376.42
- Potential profit
- $12.61
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $27.8
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $366.81
- Potential payout
- $374.11
- Potential profit
- $7.3
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $77.37
No position
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $319.75
- Potential payout
- $323.63
- Potential profit
- $3.88
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $9.45
No position
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $185.64
- Potential payout
- $279.16
- Potential profit
- $93.52
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $149.09
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $94
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $106
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- -$28
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $2.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $197.3
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$17.3
No position
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $88.72
- Potential payout
- $110.21
- Potential profit
- $21.49
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$2.73
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $18.7
- Potential payout
- $106.86
- Potential profit
- $88.16
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$12.91
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $42
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $58
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- -$31.74
No position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $92.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $7.5
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $34.95
No position
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $95.71
- Potential payout
- $99.65
- Potential profit
- $3.94
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $22.72
No position
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 44%
- Current value
- $18.57
- Potential payout
- $42.21
- Potential profit
- $23.64
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- $3.55
No position
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $23.25
- Potential payout
- $26.88
- Potential profit
- $3.63
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.02
No position
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $9.3
- Potential payout
- $11
- Potential profit
- $1.71
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $4.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $680.92
No position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $532.71
No position
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $387.04
Yes position
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Jan 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $374.92
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $298.59
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $267.14
Yes position
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.41
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- $237.5
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $199.17
No position
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.98
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $181.7
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.16
Yes position
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?
Ends Feb 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.3
Yes position
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.02
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $153.03
Yes position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.12
Yes position
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.59
No position
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.22
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.16
Yes position
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.77
No position
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.31
Simion position
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.77
No position
Trump trade deal before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $117.37
No position
Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.12
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No 85% 50.83 shares
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No 36.5% 123.46 shares
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No 47% 0.85 shares
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 13.4% 92.87 shares
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 15.7% 73.39 shares
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 11.2% 112.9 shares
- Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No 36.3% 11.84 shares
- Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No 35.3% 30.37 shares
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No 82% 10.86 shares
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?No 99% 98.34 shares
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?No 50% 17.48 shares
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?No 96.5% 287.37 shares