Polymarket Trader

0x461eE42167F246504E5057264658b562dd4Dec51-1769847066562

0x461ee42167f246504e5057264658b562dd4dec51

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $344.46
Realized PnL: $509
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $51.05
Potential payout: $58.67
Potential profit: $7.63
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $1.05

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $44.82
Potential payout: $53.67
Potential profit: $8.86
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $42.14
Potential profit: $41.45
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$2.3

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: Obama

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.9%
Current value: $27.11
Potential payout: $29.18
Potential profit: $2.07
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $2.11

No position

US strike on Colombia by December 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $19.39
Potential payout: $24.39
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$0.61

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $19.42
Potential payout: $23.54
Potential profit: $4.12
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.58

No position

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $20.12
Potential payout: $23.53
Potential profit: $3.41
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $19.86
Potential payout: $21.07
Potential profit: $1.21
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $4.22
Potential payout: $20.59
Potential profit: $16.37
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$2.78

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.3%
Current value: $15.98
Potential payout: $20.42
Potential profit: $4.44
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $0.98

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $16.74
Potential payout: $18.29
Potential profit: $1.55
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.74

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $2.08
Potential payout: $15.38
Potential profit: $13.31
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$7.92

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $2.74
Potential payout: $14.15
Potential profit: $11.41
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: -$0.26

No position

Elon Bull Run Parlay

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $12.94
Potential payout: $13.48
Potential profit: $0.55
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 28.3%
Current value: $3.7
Potential payout: $13.04
Potential profit: $9.35
Multiplier: 3.53x
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57.4%
Current value: $7.19
Potential payout: $12.53
Potential profit: $5.34
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $2.19

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $10.19
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $2.31
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $11.05
Potential payout: $12.35
Potential profit: $1.3
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.05

No position

ECB rate cut in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $9.93
Potential payout: $11.96
Potential profit: $2.03
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.07

England position

England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $9.83
Potential payout: $11.24
Potential profit: $1.4
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.17

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $9.53
Potential payout: $11.14
Potential profit: $1.62
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.53

No position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 90.1%
Current value: $9.26
Potential payout: $10.29
Potential profit: $1.02
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $7.64
Potential payout: $10.26
Potential profit: $2.62
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.36

No position

Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $9.01
Potential payout: $10.18
Potential profit: $1.17
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.77

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.65

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.14

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.42

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.83

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.55

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.33

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.61

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.63

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.34

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.92

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.64

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.22

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.43

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.05

No position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.77

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.23

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.15

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.77

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.62

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.33

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.88

Yes position

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.23

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance

Norway 66% 4.55 shares
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 71% 4.23 shares
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance

Colombia 81% 6.17 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

No 97.5% 15.78 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 97% 6.81 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Yes 78% 10.26 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

No 96% 7.37 shares
Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance

Spain 87% 9.2 shares
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance

England 89% 11.24 shares
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

France 89% 10.11 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 44% 6.82 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

No 56% 5.81 shares