Polymarket Trader

0x4629...f3b1

0x46299616ff1eb6544ca3ba653d431a20f207f3b1

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $231.71
Realized PnL: $23.08
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the announcers say "Tom Cruise" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $29.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $20.25
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$3.25

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Appeal" or "Appealed" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $16.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $33.75
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$3.75

Yes position

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $21
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $19
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$5.4

No position

Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 125m and 130m?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 38%
Current value: $7.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $12.4
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: -$4.72

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 24?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $15.3
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $7.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $12.7
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$3.7

Yes position

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?

Ends Aug 12, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.71
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$4.71

No position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.37
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$4.17

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $8.5B?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Current value: $12.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $7.4
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: -$2.8

Yes position

Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?

Ends Oct 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $4.2
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $15.8
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$3.2

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPad revenue be above $6B?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $18
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$0.8

No position

Will Shea Langeliers hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $16.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $3.9
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 22, 2026?

Ends Jul 22, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.2
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$0.4

No position

Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $2.4
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.6
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $17.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.7
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?

Ends Aug 12, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $2.2
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.8
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$5.2

No position

Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Greater China revenue be above $20B?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $15.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $4.3
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will the announcers say "VAR" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $16.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $3.3
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $11
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?

Ends Sep 14, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $16.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $3.4
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?

Ends Aug 12, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $8.94
Potential payout: $16.7
Potential profit: $7.77
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $2.65
Potential payout: $16.58
Potential profit: $13.93
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$1.33

No position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.76
Potential profit: $11.76
User PnL: -$5.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Norway vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.19

No position

Will Like a Prayer be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 71%
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $870 Week of July 13 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?

Ends Aug 8, 2026

Implied probability: 47%
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" 5+ times during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $78 Week of July 13 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?

Ends Aug 8, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?

Ends Sep 14, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 1?

Ends Jul 28, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?

Ends Jul 22, 2026

Implied probability: 29%
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?

Ends Sep 14, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

Ends Jul 21, 2026

Implied probability: 98.1%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will Despacito be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 20, 2026?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Clavicular visit the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July?

Ends Aug 13, 2026

Implied probability: 55%
Multiplier: 1.82x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Iran full airspace closure by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2026

Implied probability: 55%
Multiplier: 1.82x
User PnL: $0.2

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?

Yes 13% 20 shares
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?

Yes 15.8% 11.67 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 13.8% 28.78 shares
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.8% 89 shares
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?

Yes 18% 11.67 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 14.4% 14.39 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 14.6% 14.39 shares
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.9% 35.6 shares
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.9% 35.6 shares
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.9% 17.8 shares