Polymarket Trader

Falus

@iv_adrian50511

0x466a5c59a26b0ee6e0c35aa90dcf9c84ccac5102

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $13.78
Realized PnL: $21.72
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

French election called by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $4.29
Potential payout: $4.3
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.79

Yes position

Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?

Ends Aug 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.34
Potential profit: $2.34
User PnL: -$1.94

No position

Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $1.97
Potential payout: $2.33
Potential profit: $0.36
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $2.13
Potential payout: $2.14
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.98
Potential profit: $1.98
User PnL: -$1.72

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.71
Potential payout: $1.89
Potential profit: $0.18
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $1.86
Potential payout: $1.88
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $1.82
Potential payout: $1.82
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.41

Cardinals position

Cardinals vs. Guardians

Ends Jul 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.65

Reds position

Reds vs. Pirates

Ends May 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

Jets position

Jets vs. Flames

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14

Spurs position

Mavericks vs. Spurs

Ends Jul 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1

Yangon Galacticos position

Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Carstensz (BO3)

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.92

Jets position

Blues vs. Jets

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline?

Ends Jul 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.91

Oilers position

Kings vs. Oilers

Ends May 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.91

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Ends Mar 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.87

Red Sox position

Rockies vs. Red Sox

Ends Jul 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.8

Chiefs position

Chiefs vs. Steelers

Ends Jan 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.77

Clippers position

Nuggets vs. Clippers

Ends May 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.74

Hawks position

Hawks vs. Grizzlies

Ends Jul 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.72

Red Wings position

Ducks vs. Red Wings

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

Yes position

Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

Casper Ruud position

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

Maple Leafs position

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs

Ends May 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.61

Bucks position

Bucks vs. Pelicans

Ends Jan 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

Avalanche position

Wild vs. Avalanche

Ends Mar 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on October 30?

Ends Oct 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

Washington position

Rutgers vs. Washington

Ends Oct 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

Ravens position

Ravens vs. Texans

Ends Jan 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 18?

Up 88% 1.85 shares
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Yes 88.8% 1.84 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 82.9% 1.88 shares
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29?

Yes 78% 2.9 shares
Will the median home value in the US be between $432,000 and $434,000 on May 31?

No 89% 2.08 shares
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi

Casper Ruud 74% 2.42 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Yes 83% 2.14 shares
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

No 79% 2.33 shares
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?

No 87% 1.98 shares
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 16?

Up 84% 2.19 shares
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

No 97.6% 1.82 shares
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Yes 68% 2.71 shares