Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $118.86
- Potential payout
- $140.66
- Potential profit
- $21.8
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$9.14
Polymarket Trader
Lioney
@fwillij1
0x46e23279d95580974f932cb67c9ac46c86c89aa6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $191.16
- Realized PnL
- $104.66
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $28.13
- Potential payout
- $28.46
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $25.29
- Potential payout
- $25.3
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $4.29
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $18.88
- Potential payout
- $19.39
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.07
- Potential profit
- $18.07
- User PnL
- -$17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.5
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.67
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.29
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.22
Yes position
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.59
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.46
No position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.38
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.06
No position
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.63
Yes position
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.01
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.61
Yes position
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16
Yes position
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $1.83
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.79
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09
No position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
No position
US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.87
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.84
No position
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.69
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.54
No position
U.S. strike on Nigeria by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.46
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 91% 140.66 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?No 98% 19.39 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?No 98.4% 28.46 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 25.3 shares
- Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 98% 181.63 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 87% 13.79 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Yes 96% 13.54 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?No 94.1% 18.07 shares
- Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?Yes 93% 118.22 shares
- Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Yes 99.6% 13.92 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 94% 84.06 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes 40% 42.5 shares