Polymarket Trader

Frother

0x47093045190f43481ce041c6836b360ee559526f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $169.89
Realized PnL: $445.22
Win rate: 95.8%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $597.3
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$27.3

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $269.68
Potential profit: $269.68
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $14.53
Potential payout: $223.53
Potential profit: $209
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$23.47

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $178.22
Potential profit: $178.22
User PnL: -$42.77

Yes position

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $16.15
Potential payout: $153.85
Potential profit: $137.69
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$3.85

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $137.97
Potential profit: $137.97
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $51.15
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $58.85
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$14.85

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $64.81
Potential payout: $106.25
Potential profit: $41.44
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $21.92

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $5.36
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $66.07
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$4.64

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.3%
Current value: $8.13
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $41.88
Multiplier: 6.15x
User PnL: -$11.88

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $46.88
Potential profit: $46.48
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$14.6

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $6.48
Potential payout: $46.32
Potential profit: $39.83
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$3.52

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $36.85
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$9.81

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $29.41
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.39

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.06

Yes position

Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.95

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.52

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $35.9

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.63

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.14

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.3

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.09

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.2

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.25

No position

US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.62

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.92

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.78

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.78

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.25

No position

Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.74

No position

Will Russia enter Siversk by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Will Trump say "N Word" in October?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

No position

100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

No position

U.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.11

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Yes 40.4% 106.25 shares
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Yes 21.6% 46.32 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 17% 223.53 shares
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No 62% 37.93 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 60% 110 shares
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Yes 58.3% 68.63 shares
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Yes 5% 600 shares
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No 87% 37.93 shares
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Yes 17% 29.41 shares
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Yes 3.6% 137.97 shares
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Yes 1.9% 269.68 shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

Yes 10% 100 shares