Polymarket Trader

0x474a...c816

0x474a676f101c6fe4938ed053656cf9bbc443c816

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $310.99
Realized PnL: $605.86
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $59.92
Potential payout: $798.89
Potential profit: $738.98
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$57.77

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $65
Potential payout: $168.84
Potential profit: $103.84
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $11.13

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $30.81
Potential payout: $158
Potential profit: $127.19
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $118.97
Potential profit: $117.42
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$64.81

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.8%
Current value: $43.68
Potential payout: $48.67
Potential profit: $4.99
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $17.79

No position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $18.93
Potential payout: $44.53
Potential profit: $25.61
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $39.16
Potential profit: $38.67
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $37.94
Potential payout: $38.17
Potential profit: $0.23
User PnL: $10.84

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.37
Potential payout: $33.68
Potential profit: $33.31
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$0.64

No position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 61.9%
Current value: $19.37
Potential payout: $31.29
Potential profit: $11.92
Multiplier: 1.62x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $8.26
Potential payout: $19.43
Potential profit: $11.17
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$0.87

No position

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $16.29
Potential profit: $15.71
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $11.55
Potential profit: $11.04
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 22.7%
Current value: $2.56
Potential payout: $11.29
Potential profit: $8.72
Multiplier: 4.41x
User PnL: $1.78

No position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 91.7%
Current value: $9.48
Potential payout: $10.34
Potential profit: $0.86
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $3.49
Potential payout: $8.03
Potential profit: $4.53
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0.28

Yes position

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $0.56
Potential payout: $2.66
Potential profit: $2.1
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $1.39
Potential payout: $1.71
Potential profit: $0.32
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Ends Oct 28, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $1.66
Potential profit: $0.69
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $1.12
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $1.11
Potential profit: $0.08
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.08
Potential profit: $0.06
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $1.07
Potential profit: $0.04
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $1.05
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.42

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.45

Timberwolves position

Spurs vs. Timberwolves

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.5

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.94

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.28

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.06

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.78

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.56

No position

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.87

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.14

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.43

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 28.3%
Multiplier: 3.53x
User PnL: $6.23

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.92

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.13

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.61

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.59

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.88

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19

Yes position

Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.82

CF Cruz Azul position

Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.79

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.78

Over position

Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.78

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.77

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Yes 43% 1.83 shares
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Yes 55% 1.84 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

No 90% 1.1 shares
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Yes 67% 1.91 shares
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?

No 3.8% 8.96 shares
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?

No 4% 25.25 shares
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Yes 51% 1.34 shares
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Yes 51% 3.35 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 7% 17.14 shares
Trump out as President before 2027?

No 90% 1.11 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes 32% 10.13 shares
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Yes 38% 2.66 shares