Yes position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.2K
- Potential profit
- $3.2K
- User PnL
- -$812
Polymarket Trader
reffi
0x480366abb23a63a7ea28a7a2eec7766621b45134
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.8K
- Realized PnL
- $2.05K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $1.51K
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $987.5
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $537.5
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $548.75
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.95K
- Multiplier
- 4.56x
- User PnL
- -$461.24
No position
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $1.55K
- Potential payout
- $1.64K
- Potential profit
- $90.43
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $8.22
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Current value
- $211.37
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- $65.93
No position
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $645.43
- Potential payout
- $725.21
- Potential profit
- $79.77
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$36.26
Yes position
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $182.77
- Potential payout
- $304.62
- Potential profit
- $121.85
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- -$70.06
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $262.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $37.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$6
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $193.34
- Potential payout
- $228.8
- Potential profit
- $35.46
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$6.66
No position
ByteDance IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $190.96
- Potential payout
- $205.34
- Potential profit
- $14.37
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$5.04
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.9%
- Current value
- $39.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $160.3
- Multiplier
- 5.04x
- User PnL
- -$144.98
No position
Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.3%
- Current value
- $184.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $15.5
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Discord IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.9%
- Current value
- $56.81
- Potential payout
- $109.47
- Potential profit
- $52.65
- Multiplier
- 1.93x
- User PnL
- -$43.19
No position
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $90
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $10
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $2
Yes position
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $42.3
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $47.7
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- -$7.2
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $18.12
- Potential payout
- $65.88
- Potential profit
- $47.76
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$11.44
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $9
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $41
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46
- Potential profit
- $46
- User PnL
- -$36.34
No position
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $24.82
- Potential payout
- $34
- Potential profit
- $9.18
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- -$6.46
No position
SBF released from custody in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $22.84
- Potential payout
- $23.79
- Potential profit
- $0.95
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.38
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $6.98
- Potential payout
- $20.53
- Potential profit
- $13.55
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- $1.2
No position
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $8.06
- Potential payout
- $9.32
- Potential profit
- $1.26
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $946.28
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160
No position
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $105
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.91
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90
No position
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.2
No position
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51
Yes position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.14
No position
Netanyahu out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.35
Yes position
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 28 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.74
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24.9%
- Multiplier
- 4.02x
- User PnL
- $40.2
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
No position
Trump out as President by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.41
Yes position
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
No position
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.84
No position
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.47
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.3
Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $24
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.63
No position
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.82
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 83%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $18.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Netanyahu out by April 30?No 99.3% 61.26 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?No 66% 62.87 shares
- Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Yes 57% 103 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Yes 79% 189 shares
- Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Yes 26% 1,200 shares
- Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Yes 25% 2,000 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?No 98% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes 99.8% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes 99.6% 2,000 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?No 96.8% 1,250 shares
- Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?No 94% 55.17 shares
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No 95.7% 9.32 shares