moonrise-clump

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $54.15
Potential profit: $54.07
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.92

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $43.57
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: $0.89

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $42.98
Potential payout: $43.37
Potential profit: $0.39
User PnL: $12.98

No position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 93.1%
Current value: $35.52
Potential payout: $38.17
Potential profit: $2.65
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $3.35
Potential payout: $35.29
Potential profit: $31.94
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$2.65

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $31.26
Potential profit: $29.46
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$1.2

No position

Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $27.21
Potential payout: $27.44
Potential profit: $0.23
User PnL: $2.21

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $2.32
Potential payout: $20.19
Potential profit: $17.87
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.68

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $15.99
Potential payout: $16.2
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $3.99

No position

Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $15.32
Potential payout: $15.34
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $14.77
Potential payout: $14.78
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $2.77

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $11.38
Potential payout: $14.31
Potential profit: $2.93
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $1.53

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $10.19
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $1.31

Yes position

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $10.05
Potential payout: $11.62
Potential profit: $1.57
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $11.45
Potential payout: $11.49
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $1.45

No position

Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $11.41
Potential payout: $11.42
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $1.41

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $10.74
Potential payout: $11.36
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.74

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $11.01
Potential payout: $11.12
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.01

No position

Will Claude Code Commits be between 500.0k and 550.0k on June 30?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $9.41
Potential payout: $10.64
Potential profit: $1.22
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.59

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $10.62
Potential profit: $9.72
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $1.58
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $8.95
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$0.42

No position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $10.32
Potential payout: $10.44
Potential profit: $0.11
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $9.49
Potential payout: $10.43
Potential profit: $0.94
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.51

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $10.19
Potential payout: $10.4
Potential profit: $0.2
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.19

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Claude go down 11+ times in March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.83

Yes position

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.29

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.13

Yes position

Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.6

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.12

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.69

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.39

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.31

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.14

No position

Will Claude go down 7-8 times in March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.03

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.57

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.56

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.56

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.39

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.18

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.15

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.06

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

No position

Will Claude go down 5-6 times in March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.88

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.82

No position

Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.65

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?