Yes position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $37.95
- Potential payout
- $216.87
- Potential profit
- $178.92
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$80.13
Polymarket Trader
0x48cdB920703404dAc087Fb9aac84d81c5C1C959f-1771890546793
0x48cdb920703404dac087fb9aac84d81c5c1c959f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $37.95
- Realized PnL
- $52.01
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $42.49
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.9
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.86
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.99
Yes position
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
Yes position
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.37
Yes position
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.31
Yes position
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $0.31
Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.03
SpaceX position
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
Anthropic position
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Yes position
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.41
Yes position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.74
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes 76% 12.69 shares
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 0.2% 2,921.2 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 56% 40 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 60% 54.32 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 62% 5 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 60% 7 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 60% 10 shares
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 5% 70.96 shares
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 6% 104.18 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes 31% 33.9 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 3.4% 67.86 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 50% 16.32 shares