Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.41K
- Potential profit
- $2.41K
- User PnL
- -$35
Polymarket Trader
Arb.Trader.69420
0x48d69e29ede1cf96f14c27fb50cec33a6d741556
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $84.48
- Realized PnL
- $843.83
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$126.66
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $899.99
- Potential profit
- $899.99
- User PnL
- -$117
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $35.35
- Potential payout
- $872.86
- Potential profit
- $837.51
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$47.65
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $867.98
- Potential profit
- $867.98
- User PnL
- -$11.4
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $854
- Potential profit
- $854
- User PnL
- -$7.33
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $780.1
- Potential profit
- $780.1
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 29, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $714.29
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $657.62
- Potential profit
- $657.62
- User PnL
- -$12.79
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $626.2
- Potential profit
- $626.2
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $625
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 15, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $625
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $606.12
- Potential profit
- $606.12
- User PnL
- -$12.04
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $584.53
- Potential profit
- $584.53
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $579.1
- Potential profit
- $579.1
- User PnL
- -$6.04
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $570.16
- Potential profit
- $570.16
- User PnL
- -$11.07
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $562.46
- Potential profit
- $562.46
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $560
- Potential profit
- $560
- User PnL
- -$4.48
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $553.3
- Potential profit
- $553.3
- User PnL
- -$8.38
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $551.32
- Potential profit
- $551.32
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $549.47
- Potential profit
- $549.47
- User PnL
- -$14.2
Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $49.12
- Potential payout
- $545.83
- Potential profit
- $496.71
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$18.87
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $513.69
- Potential profit
- $513.69
- User PnL
- -$13.09
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $508.8
- Potential profit
- $508.8
- User PnL
- -$11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $409.07
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.52
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $61.62
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $41
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.01
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.21
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.95
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.04
Yes position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $6.3
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $5.5
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.26
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.62
Yes position
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.03
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- $2.49
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
Will the US strike Iran next?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.81
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?Yes 16% 20.63 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.4% 117.65 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 8.8% 659.09 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 12% 483.33 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?No 33% 100.24 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Yes 18% 11.86 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Yes 36% 69.44 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes 34% 25 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes 14% 7.68 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?Yes 37% 0.43 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?Yes 8.5% 319.79 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 21% 62.5 shares