Polymarket Trader

machiavelia

0x48ecc049f171a8c7758e5d351e5f6c3c6df58f36

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $13.63K
Realized PnL: $47.23K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.28K
Potential profit: $4.28K
User PnL: -$599.76

No position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $1.82K
Potential payout: $1.93K
Potential profit: $111.82
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.22K

No position

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $1.28K
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $76.5
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $677.68

No position

Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $1.33K
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $8.72
User PnL: $733.4

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $1.33K
User PnL: -$599.83

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $1.3K
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $3.26
User PnL: $700.9

No position

Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 93.9%
Current value: $1.22K
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $78.93
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $615.94

Yes position

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $1.22K
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $53
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $717.14

No position

Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $1.28K
User PnL: -$599.72

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $1.12K
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $38.67
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $626.27

No position

Caleb Yirenkyi: 1+ goals

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
User PnL: -$149.94

No position

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.4%
Current value: $820.35
Potential payout: $928
Potential profit: $107.65
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $420.38

No position

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $897.84
Potential payout: $928
Potential profit: $30.16
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $497.87

No position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $158.9
Potential payout: $908
Potential profit: $749.1
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$240.62

Under position

Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $833
Potential profit: $833
User PnL: -$149.94

No position

Will Maxx Crosby play for Green Bay Packers next?

Ends Sep 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $762.72
Potential payout: $764.25
Potential profit: $1.53
User PnL: $420.34

No position

Özgür Özel arrested by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $659.11
Potential payout: $674.97
Potential profit: $15.86
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $341.87

No position

Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $648.48
Potential profit: $648.48
User PnL: -$142.67

No position

Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $297.38
Potential payout: $508.34
Potential profit: $210.96
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $83.88

Yes position

Portugal leading at halftime?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $440.14
Potential profit: $440.14
User PnL: -$96.83

No position

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $407.01
Potential payout: $435.31
Potential profit: $28.3
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $228.54

Under position

Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $374.99
Potential profit: $374.99
User PnL: -$150

No position

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $345.71
Potential payout: $362
Potential profit: $16.29
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $186.07

No position

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $326
Potential profit: $326
User PnL: -$149.96

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will MFK Skalica win on 2026-05-02?

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.92K

Bouzkova position

Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Bouzkova (+1.5)

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.65K

No position

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on March 2?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.4K

No position

Inter Miami CF leading at halftime?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35K

Yellow Submarine position

Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs South America Rejects (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23K

No position

Will Jake Paul win by KO/TKO/DQ?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94K

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.75K

No position

Will Russia enter Khatnie by February 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.71K

FULL SENSE position

Valorant: FULL SENSE vs VARREL - Map 2 Winner

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7K

Sho Shimabukuro position

Busan: Sho Shimabukuro vs Beibit Zhukayev

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48K

KT Rolster position

LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48K

No position

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48K

No position

US strike on Mexico by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47K

UNiTY esports position

Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs UNiTY esports (BO1) - Conquest of Prague Online Stage Group Stage

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3K

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 9?

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3K

Nadia Podoroska position

ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27K

No position

Will Apple (AAPL) close at $250-$255 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 26 – Jan 30?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26K

BIG position

Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25K

UNO MILLE position

Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25K

No position

Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.21K

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

T20 Series Namibia vs Scotland: Namibia vs Scotland

Scotland 1% 1,651.45 shares
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

No 51.5% 1,804 shares
Games Total: O/U 2.5

Over 1% 1,705.58 shares
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-04-13?

No 8% 925.71 shares
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-12?

No 3.6% 1,066.26 shares
Will Brentford FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?

No 6% 925.15 shares
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-09?

No 4.5% 766 shares
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-05?

No 12.9% 1,081.96 shares
Will Peru win on 2026-03-31?

Yes 1% 869 shares
Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner?

No 41.1% 65.12 shares
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

No 90.1% 1,190 shares
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?

Yes 1% 394 shares