No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.2K
- Potential payout
- $1.37K
- Potential profit
- $171
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $69.21
Polymarket Trader
instanceb
0x4911e5b7b70e2a7e3c1452d1d905d6ced82a7f5d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.16K
- Realized PnL
- -$1.25K
- Win rate
- 40%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.2%
- Current value
- $249.03
- Potential payout
- $517.19
- Potential profit
- $268.16
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- -$66.22
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $479.52
- Potential payout
- $480.72
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- User PnL
- $78.44
No position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $231.87
- Potential payout
- $286.26
- Potential profit
- $54.39
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$9.79
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $149.58
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $130.98
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $75.11
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $18.03
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.99
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $9.79
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.72
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$2.38
No position
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$4.78
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$4.81
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$5.07
Yes position
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$7.91
No position
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 89%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$9.25
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$70.6
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$195.83
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$199.78
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$363.56
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$783.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 55.1% 270.28 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 56.1% 388.85 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 61.4% 310.8 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?No 7.6% 842.89 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 43.8% 268.22 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 36.2% 562.15 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 45.1% 129.11 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 82% 221.89 shares
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?No 57.4% 170.61 shares
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?No 60.6% 105 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?No 36% 368.71 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 82% 275.05 shares