Polymarket Trader

sbw1

0x491e1a5e116afdecb256e92274494c1020303489

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $25.78
Realized PnL: $325.06
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $300.01
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79.04
Potential profit: $79.04
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.34
Potential profit: $78.34
User PnL: -$5.28

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.93
Potential profit: $76.93
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $73.17
Potential profit: $73.17
User PnL: -$10.13

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.94
Potential profit: $69.94
User PnL: -$1.68

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.82
Potential profit: $57.82
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49
Potential profit: $49
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.65
Potential profit: $47.65
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.65
Potential profit: $45.65
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.13
Potential profit: $43.13
User PnL: -$7.34

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 23.2%
Current value: $9.86
Potential payout: $42.61
Potential profit: $32.75
Multiplier: 4.32x
User PnL: $2.81

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17.3%
Current value: $7.34
Potential payout: $42.48
Potential profit: $35.13
Multiplier: 5.78x
User PnL: $1.14

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.01
Potential profit: $42.01
User PnL: -$5.36

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.87
Potential profit: $40.87
User PnL: -$2.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.99
Potential profit: $39.99
User PnL: -$10.76

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.43
Potential profit: $36.43
User PnL: -$4.3

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.23
Potential profit: $35.23
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $8.58
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $26.43
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $4.37

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.99
Potential profit: $33.99
User PnL: -$2.12

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.99
Potential profit: $29.99
User PnL: -$3.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.53
Potential profit: $25.53
User PnL: -$3.83

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.03

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.24

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.47

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.41

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.35

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.71

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.29

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.9

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.88

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.99

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.92

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.63

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.47

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 71.6%
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $11.71

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.99

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.78

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.68

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.12

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.07

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Yes 74.4% 21.82 shares
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 14% 10.71 shares
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 14.6% 10.96 shares
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 14.9% 20.81 shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Yes 8% 26.93 shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 15% 34.54 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 17.9% 7.15 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 18.2% 16.32 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 16.5% 9.49 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 17% 25.5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 19% 6.32 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 12.6% 9.65 shares