Sandoval1553

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.13K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$7.34

Yes position

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $9.5
Potential payout: $999.94
Potential profit: $990.44
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $875.5
Potential profit: $872
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $6
Potential payout: $799.99
Potential profit: $793.99
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$18

Yes position

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $599.1
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$23.1

Yes position

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $32.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $467.5
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$12.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $468.12
Potential profit: $468.12
User PnL: -$46.12

Yes position

Anduril IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $39.84
Potential payout: $331.99
Potential profit: $292.15
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$40.01

Yes position

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $17.07
Potential payout: $200.86
Potential profit: $183.79
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$3.01

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $200.02
Potential profit: $191.02
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $200.02
Potential profit: $190.02
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $12
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $188
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $16
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $184
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$4.04

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $29
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $171
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $11.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $188.7
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$4.7

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.5

Yes position

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $194.44
Potential profit: $176.94
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$1.94

Yes position

Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $85.41
Potential payout: $108.8
Potential profit: $23.39
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$4.9

Yes position

SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $82.5
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $87.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$79.5

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $25.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $74.5
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Trump Airport become law this year?

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $7.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $92.65
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$4.15

No position

Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $90
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $14
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $86
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$6

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $414

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $407.61

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.34

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $167.5

Yes position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $154

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.9

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.4

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.6

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.5

Yes position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $80

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $70.8

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.8

No position

Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.81

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.43

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $49.2

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $41.2

Yes position

Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.8

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.66

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.6

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.5

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?