Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $471.64
- Potential payout
- $1.78K
- Potential profit
- $1.31K
- Multiplier
- 3.78x
- User PnL
- $72.03
Polymarket Trader
RunningT
0x49670b75f73f1014d125eeb6c5975ace08e83701
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $642.09
- Realized PnL
- $543.3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.27K
- Potential profit
- $1.27K
- User PnL
- -$242
Yes position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $361.03
- Potential profit
- $361.03
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $47.97
- Potential payout
- $282.19
- Potential profit
- $234.22
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- -$52.03
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $265.7
- Potential profit
- $265.7
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250.45
- Potential profit
- $250.45
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $131.58
- Potential profit
- $131.58
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $120
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $17.22
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $93.89
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$32.78
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $105.26
- Potential payout
- $105.26
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $45.26
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $75
- User PnL
- -$30
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $368.99
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $194.12
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.82
Yes position
Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.87
No position
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.49
Yes position
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.4
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.34
No position
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.89
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- $4.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.08
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.22
Yes position
US strike on Colombia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.45
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$21.56
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$280
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation?Yes 31.3% 95.87 shares
- Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?Yes 62% 48.4 shares
- Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?Yes 25% 120 shares
- Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?Yes 35% 142.86 shares
- Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?Yes 38% 131.58 shares
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 22.4% 1,783.12 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 45% 111.11 shares
- Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?No 99.3% 33.63 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Yes 13.8% 347.22 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes 57% 105.26 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes 40% 75 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes 27.7% 361.03 shares