PowerPicker

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $368.12
Potential payout: $406.77
Potential profit: $38.64
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $23.12

No position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $283.92
Potential payout: $291.95
Potential profit: $8.03
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $9.92

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $175.63
Potential payout: $220.92
Potential profit: $45.29
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $4.72

No position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $163.46
Potential payout: $186.82
Potential profit: $23.35
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $6.46

No position

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.9%
Current value: $156.66
Potential payout: $170.56
Potential profit: $13.9
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $3.13

No position

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $158.12
Potential payout: $169.11
Potential profit: $10.99
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $2.01

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $3.81
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $146.19
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: $0.21

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $105
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $15
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$4.8

No position

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $115.62
Potential payout: $116.67
Potential profit: $1.05
User PnL: $3.78

No position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $106.38
Potential payout: $115
Potential profit: $8.63
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $6.33

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $103.48
Potential payout: $114.34
Potential profit: $10.86
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $5.41

No position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 93.1%
Current value: $103.02
Potential payout: $110.71
Potential profit: $7.69
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.51

No position

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $101.67
Potential payout: $109.32
Potential profit: $7.65
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.52

No position

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $100.59
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $4.41
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.94

No position

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $97.5
Potential payout: $100.93
Potential profit: $3.43
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.29

No position

Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $93.76
Potential payout: $100.28
Potential profit: $6.52
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.72

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.3
Multiplier: 21.28x
User PnL: -$1.9

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $81.64
Potential payout: $97.78
Potential profit: $16.13
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $6.03

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $88.07
Potential payout: $91.79
Potential profit: $3.72
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.43

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $77.67
Potential payout: $90.84
Potential profit: $13.17
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $84.85
Potential payout: $85.45
Potential profit: $0.6
User PnL: $4.94

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $73.16
Potential payout: $77.62
Potential profit: $4.46
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.71

No position

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

Implied probability: 96.2%
Current value: $69.06
Potential payout: $71.83
Potential profit: $2.77
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $3.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $16

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $13.12

No position

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.36

No position

Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $8.51

No position

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.2%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $6.75

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.81

No position

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $5.69

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.57

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.5

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $5.14

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.77

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.57

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.97

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.84

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.74

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.54

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.38

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 96.3%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $3.36

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

No position

Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.76

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026?