Polymarket Trader

aamsaltman

0x4a672c6bafef4e389ce61017be8c9e47ab05e329

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $115.87
Realized PnL: $48.77
Win rate: 53.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 15
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $311.55
Potential profit: $311.55
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $4.8
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $295.19
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$4.2

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $5.24
Potential payout: $283.33
Potential profit: $278.09
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$5.76

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $261.84
Potential profit: $261.84
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $4.88
Potential payout: $238.1
Potential profit: $233.21
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $10.21
Potential payout: $194.44
Potential profit: $184.24
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: $3.21

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $9.36
Potential payout: $175
Potential profit: $165.64
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $2.36

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147.06
Potential profit: $147.06
User PnL: -$2.5

Tennessee Volunteers position

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.36
Potential profit: $142.36
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $9.18
Potential payout: $132.08
Potential profit: $122.9
Multiplier: 14.39x
User PnL: $2.18

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $34.7
Potential payout: $124.15
Potential profit: $89.45
Multiplier: 3.58x
User PnL: $4.7

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $8.24
Potential payout: $106.38
Potential profit: $98.14
Multiplier: 12.90x
User PnL: $3.24

Yes position

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $2.82
Potential payout: $106.38
Potential profit: $103.56
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: -$2.18

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $14.55
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $85.45
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: $7.05

Yes position

Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.47
Potential profit: $98.47
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80.95
Potential profit: $80.95
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.6
Potential profit: $76.6
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $11.89
Potential payout: $60.48
Potential profit: $48.6
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: -$3.11

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.15
Potential profit: $56.15
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3.5

No position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.78
Potential profit: $48.78
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $47.62
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51

Yes position

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.5

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.5

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.4

Connecticut Huskies position

Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.03

Warriors position

Warriors vs. Nuggets

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.81

No position

Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.04

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.33

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10.24

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$40.69

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 2% 98.47 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

No 33% 150 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

No 57% 50 shares
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?

No 0.3% 18.7 shares
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31?

Yes 0.7% 25 shares
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Yes 1% 196.04 shares
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Yes 6% 30 shares
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 6% 50 shares
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 6.3% 47.62 shares
Warriors vs. Nuggets

Warriors 34% 11.76 shares
Warriors vs. Nuggets

Warriors 17% 11.76 shares
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Yes 17.9% 11.17 shares