Polymarket Trader

0x4A7C5e0bd5463cd68c4D514d078De939CA321Dc7-1781075550783

0x4a7c5e0bd5463cd68c4d514d078de939ca321dc7

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.53K
Realized PnL: -$43.34
Win rate: 33.3%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 3
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $282.77
Potential payout: $422.05
Potential profit: $139.28
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$17.23

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $117.31
Potential payout: $282.67
Potential profit: $165.36
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $17.31

No position

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $214.32
Potential payout: $221.06
Potential profit: $6.74
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $14.32

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $168.15
Potential payout: $211.52
Potential profit: $43.36
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $42.35

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $112.98
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $87.02
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$29.02

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $137.98
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $62.02
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: -$14.86

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $81.71
Potential payout: $197.13
Potential profit: $115.42
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $4.06

No position

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $91.29
Potential payout: $128.57
Potential profit: $37.29
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $11.29

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $73.05
Potential payout: $123.81
Potential profit: $50.76
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: -$6.95

Yes position

Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $36.79
Potential payout: $90.84
Potential profit: $54.05
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$13.21

Yes position

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $15.6
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $64.4
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$4.4

No position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67.2%
Current value: $52.4
Potential payout: $77.97
Potential profit: $25.57
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$2.8

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $51.82
Potential payout: $77.34
Potential profit: $25.52
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $1.82

Yes position

Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 18.9%
Current value: $13.24
Potential payout: $70.25
Potential profit: $57.01
Multiplier: 5.31x
User PnL: -$26.76

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $30.76
Potential payout: $50.85
Potential profit: $20.08
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $8.18
Potential payout: $48.1
Potential profit: $39.93
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$26.82

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $28.29
Potential payout: $42.54
Potential profit: $14.25
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$1.71

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $11.83
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $1.17
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.34

No position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $4.38
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $32.93

Yes position

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$75.07

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

No 99% 182.35 shares
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Yes 63% 95.24 shares
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

No 60% 100 shares
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?

Yes 35.4% 282.67 shares
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Yes 71.1% 422.05 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 71% 200 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

No 77% 142 shares
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June?

No 90.5% 221.06 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

No 75% 58 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

No 66% 151.52 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

No 89% 112.36 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 41% 121.95 shares