jackedups

Implied probability: 13.2%
Current value: $133.84
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $883.98
Multiplier: 7.60x
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $129.12
Potential payout: $761.78
Potential profit: $632.66
Multiplier: 5.90x
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 34.7%
Current value: $117.93
Potential payout: $339.47
Potential profit: $221.54
Multiplier: 2.88x
User PnL: $63.17

Yes position

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $57.37
Potential payout: $266.82
Potential profit: $209.45
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$7.04

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $12.3
Potential payout: $177.01
Potential profit: $164.7
Multiplier: 14.39x
User PnL: -$7.7

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $8.33
Potential payout: $144.93
Potential profit: $136.59
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $24.89
Potential payout: $42.55
Potential profit: $17.66
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $4.89

No position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $26.48
Potential payout: $36.77
Potential profit: $10.3
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $6.48

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $15.63
Potential payout: $15.63
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $5.63

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $13.15
Potential payout: $15.38
Potential profit: $2.23
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $3.15

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.3%
Current value: $12.36
Potential payout: $14.85
Potential profit: $2.49
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $2.93

No position

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $12.87
Potential payout: $14.71
Potential profit: $1.84
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $2.87

No position

Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $10.71
Potential payout: $13.65
Potential profit: $2.93
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.71

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $9.32
Potential payout: $13.51
Potential profit: $4.19
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: -$0.68

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $12.99
Potential payout: $12.99
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $2.99

No position

Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $10.11
Potential payout: $12.72
Potential profit: $2.61
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $11.84
Potential payout: $12.66
Potential profit: $0.82
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.84

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $2.37
Potential payout: $12.24
Potential profit: $9.87
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: -$7.63

No position

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $11.49
Potential payout: $11.49
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.49

No position

Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.8%
Current value: $9.68
Potential payout: $11.28
Potential profit: $1.6
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.32

No position

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $10.27
Potential payout: $10.87
Potential profit: $0.6
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $10.17
Potential payout: $10.82
Potential profit: $0.65
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $7.37
Potential payout: $9.05
Potential profit: $1.67
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.4

Yes position

Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27

Yes position

Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.24

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.06

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.71

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

Yes position

Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.29

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 77.6%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $4.23

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.53

No position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.51

No position

Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.13

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.81

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.66

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.26

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $1.9

No position

Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

No position

Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

No position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?