quera2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or below on June 20?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.39
Potential payout: $798.3
Potential profit: $795.91
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$22.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.69
Potential payout: $676
Potential profit: $674.31
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.31

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or below on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $668.43
Potential profit: $668.1
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $49.03
Potential payout: $350.23
Potential profit: $301.2
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$0.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C or higher on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $347.26
Potential profit: $347.08
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C or below on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $327.51
Potential profit: $327.35
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C or higher on June 20?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.47
Potential payout: $314.88
Potential profit: $314.4
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $283.71
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $285.09
Potential profit: $284.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $51.23
Potential payout: $276.91
Potential profit: $225.68
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $1.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $252.83
Potential profit: $252.7
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $249.25
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $246.67
Potential profit: $245.68
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $3.28
Potential payout: $226.27
Potential profit: $222.99
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$6.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $219.89
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.89

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or below on June 20?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $208
Potential profit: $207.79
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$0.79

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $49.49
Potential payout: $202
Potential profit: $152.51
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $201.6
Potential profit: $201
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $6.02
Potential payout: $188.06
Potential profit: $182.05
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$3.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $152.75
Potential profit: $152.45
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $27.25
Potential payout: $147.32
Potential profit: $120.07
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 71°F or below on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $143.64
Potential profit: $143.28
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.64

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.68

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.97

No position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.79

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.88

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.37

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.01

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 9.8%
Multiplier: 10.20x
User PnL: $13.08

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.43

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.94

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.48

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.47

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 26%
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $3.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $2.58

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $2.07

No position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19?