Polymarket Trader

NatalieLaw

0x4b2f12695653edfc9e9d76a62d95d432ba4c4a32

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $109.63
Realized PnL: $458.77
Win rate: 70.8%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $41.28
Potential payout: $41.76
Potential profit: $0.48
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: -$0.15

No position

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $36.22
Potential payout: $36.5
Potential profit: $0.27
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.79
Potential profit: $15.79
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 15.2%
Current value: $1.51
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.49
Multiplier: 6.60x
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $7.14
Potential payout: $7.15
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $1.28
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$0.03

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.48
Potential profit: $5.48
User PnL: -$1.97

No position

Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $5.01
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $4.13
Potential payout: $4.16
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $2.83
Potential payout: $2.85
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $2.56
Potential payout: $2.58
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $2.04
Potential profit: $0.04
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $1.99
Potential payout: $2
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: -$0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.97

No position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?

Ends Dec 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.54

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?

Ends May 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.83

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.5

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.09

No position

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.98

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.39

No position

US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.17

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.26

No position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.62

FURIA position

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06

Yes position

Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

No position

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.16

No position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: -$0.46

No position

Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference?

Ends Jun 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.69

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.57

No position

Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: -$5.12

No position

Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: -$5.51

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 99.7% 5,120.24 shares
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 99.8% 5,120.24 shares
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 99.1% 5,554.43 shares
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 99.2% 5,554.44 shares
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 98.9% 5,555.55 shares
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 99% 5,555.56 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

No 98.5% 5,628.8 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

No 98.6% 5,628.8 shares
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 99.8% 5.01 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?

No 80% 6.25 shares
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 99.6% 5,516.54 shares
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 99.7% 5,516.55 shares