Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $105.15
- Potential payout
- $179.75
- Potential profit
- $74.59
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $19.07
Polymarket Trader
0x4b46...4451
0x4b46f47a14a4d88d3641ee87765afddd9e114451
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $496
- Realized PnL
- $196.72
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $79.22
- Potential payout
- $130.94
- Potential profit
- $51.72
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $12.99
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 45%
- Current value
- $51.54
- Potential payout
- $114.53
- Potential profit
- $62.99
- Multiplier
- 2.22x
- User PnL
- $11.53
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $94.03
- Potential payout
- $106.25
- Potential profit
- $12.22
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $6.54
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $55.05
- Potential payout
- $55.98
- Potential profit
- $0.92
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $17.27
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $9.61
- Potential payout
- $45.74
- Potential profit
- $36.14
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$15.8
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $6.6
- Potential payout
- $28.07
- Potential profit
- $21.48
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$5.4
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.4%
- Current value
- $13.35
- Potential payout
- $22.1
- Potential profit
- $8.75
- Multiplier
- 1.66x
- User PnL
- -$4.43
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $20.28
- Potential payout
- $20.6
- Potential profit
- $0.32
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.64
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $17.73
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- User PnL
- $1.12
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $5.39
- Potential payout
- $14.78
- Potential profit
- $9.38
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$1.72
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.8%
- Current value
- $2.68
- Potential payout
- $12.9
- Potential profit
- $10.21
- Multiplier
- 4.81x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $12.17
- Potential payout
- $12.88
- Potential profit
- $0.71
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.53
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $0.2
- Potential payout
- $12.8
- Potential profit
- $12.6
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- -$1.03
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.2%
- Current value
- $9.22
- Potential payout
- $10.96
- Potential profit
- $1.74
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $10.8
- Potential profit
- $10.7
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$8.9
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $10.12
- Potential profit
- $10.07
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$5.95
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.2%
- Current value
- $1.18
- Potential payout
- $9.7
- Potential profit
- $8.52
- Multiplier
- 8.23x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $0.19
- Potential payout
- $7.05
- Potential profit
- $6.86
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$3.59
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $1.99
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $5.01
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $6.9
- Potential profit
- $6
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$1.1
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $4.91
- Potential payout
- $4.95
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.41
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $4.94
- Potential profit
- $4.89
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$1.53
No position
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $4.4
- Potential payout
- $4.65
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.13
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.74
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.08
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.83
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.5
G2 position
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.43
Aurora Gaming position
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.35
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.34
B8 position
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.97
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.1
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.74
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $5.73
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.38
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.24
BIG position
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.76
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.72
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.49
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
Yes position
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.04
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.79
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.18
9z position
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.97
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2.92
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No 99.5% 0.04 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?No 99.7% 1.03 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No 99.5% 0.31 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 10.3% 9.69 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 98.9% 0.21 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 54% 6.15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 38% 12.16 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 15.4% 12.9 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?No 98.1% 2.98 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 35% 21.72 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 71% 3.17 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 73% 4.68 shares