Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$16
Polymarket Trader
Alphard01
0x4b799481e4ba562ff8ebd1b91a6fd7bbe8a5e192
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $122.11
- Realized PnL
- $50.82
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 3
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $19.63
- Potential payout
- $835.33
- Potential profit
- $815.7
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$30.37
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $31.73
- Potential payout
- $488.1
- Potential profit
- $456.37
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$68.27
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $32.42
- Potential payout
- $381.46
- Potential profit
- $349.04
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$74.39
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $38.28
- Potential payout
- $156.25
- Potential profit
- $117.97
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$11.72
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $86.22
- Potential profit
- $86.17
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$51.64
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $56.82
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 28% 381.46 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 47% 227.27 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 21% 238.1 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes 0.5% 10,000 shares
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?Yes 59.9% 86.22 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No 32% 156.25 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes 1.8% 1,000 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 22% 227.27 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 20% 250 shares
- Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 6% 835.33 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Yes 1.6% 1,000 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes 0.4% 10,000 shares