Polymarket Trader

Saguache

0x4b7ad5e46052e754b71dafc8a19d64c2f9b75ce6

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.58K
Realized PnL: $783.74
Win rate: 87.5%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $620.45
Potential payout: $693.62
Potential profit: $73.18
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $39.6

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $119.78
Potential payout: $311.11
Potential profit: $191.33
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$20.22

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $165.31
Potential payout: $287.5
Potential profit: $122.19
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $1.31

Yes position

Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $217.09
Potential payout: $217.2
Potential profit: $0.11
User PnL: $7.09

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $176.42
Potential payout: $197.12
Potential profit: $20.7
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $41.69

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $115.33
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $18
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $15.33

No position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 93.1%
Current value: $101.14
Potential payout: $108.7
Potential profit: $7.55
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.14

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $17.69
Potential payout: $30.77
Potential profit: $13.08
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$2.31

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $2.23
Potential payout: $21.28
Potential profit: $19.04
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $1.23

No position

Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $16.59
Potential payout: $18.64
Potential profit: $2.05
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $10.18
Potential payout: $12.2
Potential profit: $2.01
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $4.4
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.6
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $1.89
Potential profit: $0.78
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $1.64
Potential profit: $0.57
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $1.25
Potential profit: $0.26
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $1.2
Potential profit: $0.16
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $1.2
Potential profit: $0.2
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $1.15
Potential profit: $0.1
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $1.12
Potential profit: $0.11
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.09
Potential profit: $0.07
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $1.09
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 93.9%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.06
Potential profit: $0.07
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $262.11

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.05

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.03

Yes position

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.28

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.1

Yes position

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.15

Yes position

Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.05

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.6

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.16

Yes position

Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.03

No position

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $7.61

No position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

No position

US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.32

Yes position

Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47

No position

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

No position

US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.78

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 92.9% 10.76 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 94.7% 10.56 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 98% 10.2 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 79.9% 10 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 85.8% 11.65 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 90.4% 11.06 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 90.8% 110.13 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 85.8% 116.56 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 75.4% 5 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 84.1% 118.86 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 37.9% 26.38 shares
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 40.7% 2.46 shares