No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $1.75K
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $49.5
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $22.5
Polymarket Trader
KairoNexus
0x4bf350d8d6fc4de0bd482ad82b71ebe60245369d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.94K
- Realized PnL
- $243.96
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 3
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $1.52K
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $130.41
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$124.21
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $1.05K
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $39.82
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$5.79
Yes position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $1.02K
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $39.58
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$5.66
No position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.49
- Potential payout
- $970.57
- Potential profit
- $970.08
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$547.09
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.9%
- Current value
- $816.85
- Potential payout
- $929.3
- Potential profit
- $112.45
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$64.02
Yes position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $721.01
- Potential payout
- $828.75
- Potential profit
- $107.74
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$8.29
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $465.19
- Potential payout
- $528.63
- Potential profit
- $63.44
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$7.29
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $106.94
- Potential payout
- $475.27
- Potential profit
- $368.33
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$8.77
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.6%
- Current value
- $173.07
- Potential payout
- $371.79
- Potential profit
- $198.72
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$85.9
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.2%
- Current value
- $223.02
- Potential payout
- $352.66
- Potential profit
- $129.64
- Multiplier
- 1.58x
- User PnL
- -$37.95
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $79.62
- Potential payout
- $80.22
- Potential profit
- $0.6
- User PnL
- $2.15
No position
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $17.9
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $0.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $248.14
Yes position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $29.55
No position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$33.73
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?Yes 88% 488 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes 88.7% 333.42 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Yes 89.4% 536.31 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes 74.9% 291.19 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?Yes 88% 340.75 shares
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No 12.1% 209.76 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?No 90.4% 1,183.78 shares
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?No 98.6% 18 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No 96% 1,800 shares
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?Yes 96.9% 1,091.03 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No 74% 352.66 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?Yes 97.9% 80 shares