Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.99K
- Potential profit
- $8.99K
- User PnL
- -$844.99
Polymarket Trader
0x4C3EA2E8414e07449c2C355396d2bAaB7587403A-1767955999516
0x4c3ea2e8414e07449c2c355396d2baab7587403a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $367.87
- Realized PnL
- $1.94K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $55.41
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- $5.41
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $698.8
- Potential profit
- $698.8
- User PnL
- -$41.95
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $4.27
- Potential payout
- $533.32
- Potential profit
- $529.05
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.73
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $465.44
- Potential profit
- $465.44
- User PnL
- -$18.62
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $312.5
- Potential profit
- $312.5
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $17.5
- Potential payout
- $294.12
- Potential profit
- $276.62
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $35.71
- Potential payout
- $285.71
- Potential profit
- $250
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.29
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $284.03
- Potential profit
- $284.03
- User PnL
- -$51.76
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $281.86
- Potential profit
- $281.86
- User PnL
- -$47
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $260.12
- Potential profit
- $260.12
- User PnL
- -$110
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 80.1%
- Current value
- $204.73
- Potential payout
- $255.75
- Potential profit
- $51.02
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $104.73
Yes position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $227.27
- Potential profit
- $227.27
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $192.31
- Potential profit
- $192.31
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $175.44
- Potential profit
- $175.44
- User PnL
- -$100
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $165.92
- Potential profit
- $165.92
- User PnL
- -$28.21
Yes position
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $159.76
- Potential profit
- $159.76
- User PnL
- -$50
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $159.38
- Potential profit
- $159.38
- User PnL
- -$28.22
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.3%
- Current value
- $15.85
- Potential payout
- $154.64
- Potential profit
- $138.79
- Multiplier
- 9.76x
- User PnL
- $0.85
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $147.06
- Potential profit
- $147.06
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $7.99
- Potential payout
- $138.89
- Potential profit
- $130.9
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$7.01
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $136.61
- Potential profit
- $136.54
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$49.93
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $26.35
- Potential payout
- $135.14
- Potential profit
- $108.78
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$23.65
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $392.86
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.41
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $221.67
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.43
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.87
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $80.04
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $65.12
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.56
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.63
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.96
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.45
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.56
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.49
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.78
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.57
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.03
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.18
Yes position
Will Israel or the US target Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.05
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.58
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.91
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 39.1% 255.75 shares
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?Yes 16% 62.5 shares
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Will Brazil win the World Cup?Yes 8% 125 shares
- Will France win the World Cup?Yes 24% 41.67 shares
- Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Yes 14% 71.43 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-07-01?Yes 72% 41.67 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-30?Yes 77% 38.96 shares
- Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?Yes 46% 65.22 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?Yes 25% 80 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?Yes 58% 68.97 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 37% 81.08 shares