SingletonFamilyFund

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $429
Potential payout: $19.5K
Potential profit: $19.07K
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$397.1

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $882.57
Potential payout: $17.65K
Potential profit: $16.77K
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$683.71

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $4.35
Potential payout: $8.7K
Potential profit: $8.69K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$453.41

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $4.01
Potential payout: $8.03K
Potential profit: $8.03K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$418.57

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $7.7K
Potential profit: $7.69K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$401.28

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $11.31
Potential payout: $7.54K
Potential profit: $7.53K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$385.67

Yes position

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.61
Potential payout: $5.21K
Potential profit: $5.21K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$271.69

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $1.33K
Potential payout: $2.2K
Potential profit: $870.22
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: -$514.52

No position

Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $1.41K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $90
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $281.44

Yes position

Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.86
Potential payout: $716.22
Potential profit: $713.36
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$7.32

Yes position

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $542.88
Potential profit: $542.61
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$28.3

Yes position

Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $542.88
Potential profit: $542.61
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$28.3

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $542.88
Potential profit: $542.61
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$28.3

Yes position

Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $542.88
Potential profit: $542.61
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$28.3

Yes position

Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $542.88
Potential profit: $542.61
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$28.3

Yes position

Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $542.88
Potential profit: $542.61
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$28.3

No position

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $448.29
Potential payout: $453.28
Potential profit: $4.99
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $40.34

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $51.4
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $348.6
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: -$73.98

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $12.44
Potential payout: $388.85
Potential profit: $376.41
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$35.15

No position

Will Microsoft have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $362.91
Potential payout: $364
Potential profit: $1.09
User PnL: $2.91

No position

Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $258.38
Potential payout: $265
Potential profit: $6.63
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $25.18

Yes position

Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $10.96
Potential payout: $264.17
Potential profit: $253.21
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: $0.93

Yes position

Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $7.66
Potential payout: $251.01
Potential profit: $243.36
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$1.37

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $38.86
Potential payout: $250.72
Potential profit: $211.86
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$103.37

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 7.9%
Multiplier: 12.66x
User PnL: $8.98K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.52K

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $737.19

No position

Will the next model released by DeepSeek debut at a score of at least 1460?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $634.33

No position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $507.2

Yes position

BitBoy convicted?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $498.18

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $332.06

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.51

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.12

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218.35

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $217.75

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $205.91

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 92%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $182.43

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.75

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.84

No position

Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $93.91

Down position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.8

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.83

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1525 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.09

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.9

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.85

Yes position

Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.26

No position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.83

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $62.01

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.09

No position

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Implied probability: 99%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $52.35

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $51.76

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.2

Yes position

Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.79

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.17

No position

Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.77

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.44

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.74

No position

Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.62

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.95

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $27.08

No position

Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.98

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21

Yes position

Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 45%
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $19.06

No position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.58

Yes position

Claude 4.7 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.86

No position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.2

No position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.74

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.4

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.02

No position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.73

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.43

No position

Will the next model released by DeepSeek debut at a score of at least 1480?