Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $15.24K
- Potential payout
- $18.7K
- Potential profit
- $3.46K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $178.9
Polymarket Trader
0x4c68...6162
0x4c681fbb7564d154e534feb9720fc63014106162
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $31.01K
- Realized PnL
- -$383.98
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $15.78K
- Potential payout
- $15.8K
- Potential profit
- $23.7
- User PnL
- $608.3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $553.56
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $333.33
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.05
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.74
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $177.88
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $151.22
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.29
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.37
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.6
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.93
No position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.72
No position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.7
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.26
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $1.55
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- -$5.25
No position
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$29.02
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$186.67
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$366.64
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$378.6
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$676
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$903.36
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$999.91
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 96.4% 2,567.07 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 80.5% 18,700 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 96% 15,800 shares
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No 97.1% 5,200 shares
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 56.3% 1,178.67 shares
- Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No 56.5% 1,585.5 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Yes 26% 359 shares
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?No 99.9% 1,018.71 shares
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Yes 91% 525.99 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?No 96% 1,043.08 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Yes 2.6% 23,899.99 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 99.9% 2,097.46 shares