Polymarket Trader

welcometohell

0x4c8b4f69fe57aa2de5be103002066e0203951614

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $51.8
Realized PnL: $3.69K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Up position

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.03K
Potential profit: $3.03K
User PnL: -$90.91

Yes position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.59K
Potential profit: $1.59K
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $588.24
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Google reach $320 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $526.85
Potential profit: $526.85
User PnL: -$275.64

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $7
Potential payout: $482.82
Potential profit: $475.82
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $277.78
Potential profit: $277.78
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $13.97
Potential payout: $268.62
Potential profit: $254.65
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: -$3.03

No position

Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $150-$152 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $252.67
Potential profit: $252.67
User PnL: -$213.25

No position

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 16?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$158

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$10.6

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.28
Potential profit: $192.28
User PnL: -$10

Up position

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$10

Up position

DAX (DAX) Up or Down on March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will NVIDIA dip to $164 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $160
User PnL: -$40

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 11?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130.55
Potential profit: $130.55
User PnL: -$4.96

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $6.1
Potential payout: $129.78
Potential profit: $123.68
Multiplier: 21.28x
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the WI-02 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $5.63
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $119.38
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$4.38

No position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 11?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.05
Potential profit: $119.05
User PnL: -$4.76

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $5.91
Potential payout: $118.14
Potential profit: $112.23
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$4.09

Yes position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on March 11?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $117.65
User PnL: -$4.94

Down position

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 11?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.12
Potential profit: $111.12
User PnL: -$40

No position

Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $13.2
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $96.8
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: $3.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

T1 position

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.73

No position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196

No position

Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.99

No position

Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.32

Hawks position

Hawks vs. Mavericks

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.67

Down position

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $161.82

No position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $161.24

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.98

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.69

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.97

Up position

Solana Up or Down - January 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.48

Yes position

Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.35

76ers position

Clippers vs. 76ers

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.55

Down position

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on March 20?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.66

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.11

No position

Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.08

Bulls position

Bulls vs. Nuggets

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 0.7% 67.42 shares
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes 1.2% 40 shares
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 0.4% 59.87 shares
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 on March 30?

No 86% 43.05 shares
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 30?

Up 62% 2.77 shares
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 30?

Down 52% 8.86 shares
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 30?

Up 52% 9.6 shares
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $215?

No 99% 31.34 shares
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $210?

No 92% 12.02 shares
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of March?

No 94.3% 97.44 shares
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 on March 31?

Yes 63% 40.74 shares
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 30?

Down 36% 10 shares