Polymarket Trader

Soothsayer

0x4cd091ac7140b2ad6948d44e9521653b2d115e51

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $456.4
Realized PnL: $7.7K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $119.4
Potential payout: $4.19K
Potential profit: $4.07K
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$242.11

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $38.5
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.46K
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$196.5

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $10.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.99K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$131.5

Yes position

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $10.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.99K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$30.5

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
User PnL: -$74

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $115
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $885
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.3%
Current value: $162.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $837.5
Multiplier: 6.15x
User PnL: $140.5

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.98
Potential profit: $999.98
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.96
Potential profit: $999.96
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $900
User PnL: -$41.8

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $899.21
Potential profit: $899.21
User PnL: -$62.94

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $531.29
Potential profit: $531.29
User PnL: -$52.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1K

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18K

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $813.99

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $732

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $416.59

Yes position

Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $267.39

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October?

Ends Oct 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?

Ends Jul 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?

Ends Jul 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?

Ends Jul 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 23?

Ends Jul 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.5

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $88.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 22?

Ends Jul 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

No position

Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.98

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $35.02

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in September 2025?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $31

No position

Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.5

Mumbai position

Delhi Capitals vs. Mumbai Indians

Ends Apr 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.82

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.18

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in December 2025?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 3?

Ends Aug 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.33

Rajasthan Royals position

Rajasthan Royals vs. Gujarat Titans

Ends May 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.14

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.2% 5,000 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.2% 5,000 shares
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?

Yes 8.6% 186.77 shares
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?

Yes 9% 115 shares
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?

Yes 29.1% 26.06 shares
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?

Yes 28.9% 15 shares
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?

Yes 28.7% 49.17 shares
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?

Yes 28.4% 89.5 shares
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?

Yes 1.5% 35 shares
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?

Yes 27.9% 300 shares
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?

Yes 26.4% 69.5 shares
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in November 2025?

Yes 0.5% 746.16 shares