Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $24.96
- Potential payout
- $25.47
- Potential profit
- $0.51
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.27
Polymarket Trader
0x4CE60B666FBaEBC2DEbF37fcd01A6fcb5625546D-1781387041383
0x4ce60b666fbaebc2debf37fcd01a6fcb5625546d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $33.26
- Realized PnL
- -$53.12
- Win rate
- 37.5%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.44
- Potential payout
- $9.28
- Potential profit
- $7.84
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$2.37
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $6.86
- Potential payout
- $6.91
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $0.46
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.49
Egypt position
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.93
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Over position
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Up position
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Up position
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.42
Down position
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.46
Under position
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.75
Germany position
Spread: Germany (-1.5)
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.17
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.12
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.33
Yes position
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.52
Yes position
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.84
Yes position
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Yes 93% 25.47 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETDown 72% 2.78 shares
- Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ETUp 61% 3.28 shares
- XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ETDown 55% 3.64 shares
- XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ETDown 85% 1.72 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ETDown 4.1% 48.76 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ETDown 31% 6.45 shares
- Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ETUp 41% 4.88 shares
- Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over 55% 5.49 shares
- Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over 57% 5.49 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 41% 9.28 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 94.2% 2.02 shares