Polymarket Trader

0x4d12...be05

0x4d12409fc7e386f483e00fc6f79a3f1de17abe05

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $50.34
Realized PnL: $71.48
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?

Ends Oct 28, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $10.68
Potential payout: $15.15
Potential profit: $4.47
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $5.68

No position

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $5.72
Potential payout: $9.78
Potential profit: $4.06
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $3.99
Potential payout: $9.5
Potential profit: $5.51
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: -$0.38

No position

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $3.84
Potential payout: $9.25
Potential profit: $5.41
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $4.52
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $5.19
Potential payout: $7.92
Potential profit: $2.73
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.12

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $5.06
Potential payout: $7.39
Potential profit: $2.33
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $6.59
Potential profit: $1.68
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $5.19
Potential payout: $6.41
Potential profit: $1.22
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $5.13
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $1.41
Potential payout: $3.25
Potential profit: $1.84
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Under position

Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.64

No position

Will Lu Dort be named to the 2026 NBA All-Defensive First Team?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.9

No position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $11.75

Over position

Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.14

Over position

Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.81

Ghana position

Spread: England (-1.5)

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.56

Sweden position

Spread: Sweden (-1.5)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.48

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.86

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

No position

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.16

Yes position

IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.13

Under position

Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27

No position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.92

Over position

France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Over position

France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Over position

Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.26

Yes position

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.62

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.64

Under position

Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.46

Under position

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.79

Yes position

Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Conference?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.93

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.36

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Yes 75% 6.59 shares
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

No 99.1% 17 shares
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5

Over 32% 3.13 shares
France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5

Over 26% 3.85 shares
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5

Over 44% 2.27 shares
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5

Under 44% 2.27 shares
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5

Under 20% 13.95 shares
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)

Morocco 21% 16.19 shares
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)

Morocco 39% 8.72 shares
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5

Under 27% 13.33 shares
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5

Over 45% 8 shares
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5

Under 26% 13.85 shares