No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $4.04K
- Potential payout
- $4.2K
- Potential profit
- $163.83
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $142.19
Polymarket Trader
RolandChang
0x4d1bcbaeed22c6da173b1a356c3c6d2270081419
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $9.65K
- Realized PnL
- $21.58K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Current value
- $615.07
- Potential payout
- $2.67K
- Potential profit
- $2.06K
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- -$44.07
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $1.9K
- Potential payout
- $2.06K
- Potential profit
- $164.08
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $11.42
No position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.94K
- Potential profit
- $1.94K
- User PnL
- -$1.85K
No position
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $1.07K
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $69.12
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $16.07
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $825.1
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $289.9
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- -$132.04
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $990
- Potential profit
- $990
- User PnL
- -$763.1
No position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $126.77
- Potential payout
- $905.47
- Potential profit
- $778.7
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$199.86
Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $261.83
- Potential payout
- $748.08
- Potential profit
- $486.25
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- -$420.71
No position
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $585.55
- Potential payout
- $586.43
- Potential profit
- $0.88
- User PnL
- $11.1
Up position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$250
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $130
- Potential payout
- $399.99
- Potential profit
- $269.99
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- $54
Yes position
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $220.78
- Potential profit
- $220.78
- User PnL
- -$24.07
No position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $214.06
- Potential profit
- $214.06
- User PnL
- -$44.15
Up position
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $199.99
- User PnL
- -$101
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $86.59
- Potential payout
- $186.21
- Potential profit
- $99.62
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $12.1
Yes position
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $11.33
- Potential payout
- $152.03
- Potential profit
- $140.7
- Multiplier
- 13.42x
- User PnL
- -$2.49
Up position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$69
Down position
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.79
- Potential profit
- $2.79
- User PnL
- -$1.29
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24.9%
- Multiplier
- 4.02x
- User PnL
- $3.51K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $1.99K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- $1.15K
Yes position
AI Bubble Boom Parlay November
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Multiplier
- 10.93x
- User PnL
- $1.04K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $988
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $878.14
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $791.71
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $768.48
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $749.1
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $703.81
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 7.3%
- Multiplier
- 13.79x
- User PnL
- $679.5
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $546.14
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $530.57
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $527.69
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 33.4%
- Multiplier
- 3.00x
- User PnL
- $512.94
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $486
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $477.43
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $476.42
Yes position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- $460
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $431.53
No position
GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $426.81
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.3% 8,268.7 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?No 90% 130 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?No 89% 35.9 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 92% 268.83 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 91.9% 38.32 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 97.4% 249 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 90.9% 757.91 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 86.5% 4,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 86.5% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 86.4% 713.97 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No 25% 2,900.98 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 70.4% 200 shares