No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $137.34
- Potential profit
- $137.27
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$20.53
Polymarket Trader
matureman
0x4d5adbe5be55ca235231134c3455d184be8a02ea
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $81.12
- Realized PnL
- -$1.92
- Win rate
- 0%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 5
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 36%
- Current value
- $18.6
- Potential payout
- $51.66
- Potential profit
- $33.06
- Multiplier
- 2.78x
- User PnL
- -$2.03
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $22.85
- Potential payout
- $29.87
- Potential profit
- $7.02
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $2.24
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 82.1%
- Current value
- $20.41
- Potential payout
- $24.87
- Potential profit
- $4.45
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.22
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $13.67
- Potential payout
- $21.7
- Potential profit
- $8.03
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $11.42
- Potential profit
- $11.42
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.24
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $1.54
- Potential payout
- $10.65
- Potential profit
- $9.11
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.59
Yes position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $1.86
- Potential payout
- $10.32
- Potential profit
- $8.46
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $2.12
- Potential payout
- $8.13
- Potential profit
- $6.02
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- $0.81
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
No position
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.7%
- Multiplier
- 6.83x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 15% 137.33 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 57% 1.77 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?No 57% 21.7 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?No 69% 29.87 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No 40% 51.53 shares
- Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?Yes 19% 5.44 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 83% 24.87 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Yes 32% 2.03 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No 28% 4.87 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Yes 63% 2.03 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 20% 10.65 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No 15% 5 shares