Polymarket Trader

M.Kraust

0x4dd4b2b63484549ee6698d7dfdbb235fe05c31b1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $7.33
Realized PnL: $15.85
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 3
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.47
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $28.1
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$1.53

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.8%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $4.53
Potential profit: $1.05
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $3.38
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $0.62
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.46

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.96

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.66

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.43

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.11

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.01

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.04

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Yes 75% 4 shares
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?

Yes 66.2% 4.53 shares
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?

Yes 7% 28.57 shares
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 2?

Yes 24% 4 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?

No 99.3% 2.99 shares
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on July 1?

Yes 41% 8 shares
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on July 1?

Yes 46% 8 shares
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 2?

Yes 28% 4 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?

No 99.5% 2.99 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET

Up 2.8% 14.36 shares
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16?

Yes 10% 23 shares
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 17?

Yes 75% 4 shares