Yes position
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $31.81
- Potential payout
- $2.19K
- Potential profit
- $2.16K
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$6.19
Polymarket Trader
A1rdr0p
0x4e15a938dd2994b9b10f55ef4f267f1b1477158f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $49.37
- Realized PnL
- $60.42
- Win rate
- 62.5%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 16
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65
- Potential profit
- $65
- User PnL
- -$7.34
No position
Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $15
- User PnL
- -$7.1
Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $12.15
- Potential payout
- $13.89
- Potential profit
- $1.74
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2.15
Yes position
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.2
- Potential profit
- $10.2
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $5.42
- Potential payout
- $6.41
- Potential profit
- $0.99
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.42
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Usyk beat Fury?
Ends Dec 21, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.75
Yes position
France debt downgrade by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.1
Yes position
Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.61
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
Yes position
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
East coast port strike ends by next Friday?
Ends Oct 11, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33
Yes position
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
Yes position
Iran strike on Israel before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Will Brazil unban X before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
Will France ban Telegram before October?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?
Ends Dec 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.99
No position
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$1.12
Yes position
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.75
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?
Ends Dec 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.5
No position
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or?
Ends Oct 28, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.65
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.4% 214.29 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?No 78% 6.41 shares
- Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.6% 312.5 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Yes 52% 7.46 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Yes 67% 7.46 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Yes 72% 13.89 shares
- Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.8% 1,666.67 shares
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01?Yes 49% 10.2 shares
- Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?Yes 44% 5 shares
- Will Usyk beat Fury?Yes 68% 44.12 shares
- Will Usyk beat Fury?Yes 67% 22.39 shares
- Will Usyk beat Fury?Yes 67% 74.63 shares