0x4e3c...2a42

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $23.64
Potential profit: $22.99
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $0.62
Potential payout: $20.65
Potential profit: $20.03
Multiplier: 33.33x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 22?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.19
Potential profit: $17.19
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Belgium be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $11.63
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.3
Potential profit: $10.3
User PnL: -$0.31

Yes position

Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $8.69
Potential profit: $7.58
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $8.51
Potential profit: $7.57
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $6.97
Potential profit: $5.85
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $5.67
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $0.66
Potential payout: $5.26
Potential profit: $4.61
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $0.59
Potential payout: $4.39
Potential profit: $3.79
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.37

No position

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $2.4
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $1.22
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $2.12
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $0.22

Yes position

Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $2.32
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $0.02

Over position

England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $2.78
Potential profit: $1.71
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.69
Potential payout: $2.69
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 34.2%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $2.28
Potential profit: $1.5
Multiplier: 2.92x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 12.2%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $2.07
Potential profit: $1.82
Multiplier: 8.23x
User PnL: -$0.3

No position

Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Netherlands?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $2.02
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0

No position

Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $1.82
Potential profit: $0.92
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $1.78
Potential profit: $1.06
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$0.17

No position

Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $1.14
Potential payout: $1.52
Potential profit: $0.38
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $0.14

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.87

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

Yes position

Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

Over position

Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.66

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

Over position

New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.31

No position

Exact Score: Any Other Score?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

Over position

France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 21?