Yes position
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $171.23
- Potential payout
- $295.23
- Potential profit
- $124
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- $31.24
Polymarket Trader
0x4e83...a81f
0x4e8323528bc61683cea9ea7faf23ed439931a81f
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $1.62K
- Realized PnL
- -$20.94
- Win rate
- 81.3%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 16
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $221.4
- Potential payout
- $282.04
- Potential profit
- $60.64
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $1.41
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $200.77
- Potential payout
- $246.37
- Potential profit
- $45.6
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $30.77
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $144.37
- Potential payout
- $196.43
- Potential profit
- $52.05
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $34.38
Yes position
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61%
- Current value
- $113.23
- Potential payout
- $185.62
- Potential profit
- $72.39
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- $14.85
No position
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $173.65
- Potential payout
- $176.47
- Potential profit
- $2.82
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $23.65
Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $97.46
- Potential payout
- $169.49
- Potential profit
- $72.03
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $97.46
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $129.62
- Potential payout
- $143.22
- Potential profit
- $13.61
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $129.62
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $106.33
- Potential payout
- $140.84
- Potential profit
- $34.51
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $6.34
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $108.42
- Potential payout
- $108.7
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- User PnL
- $33.42
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $64.4
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $5.6
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $7
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $39.89
- Potential payout
- $68.18
- Potential profit
- $28.29
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $9.89
Yes position
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $18.77
- Potential payout
- $64.73
- Potential profit
- $45.96
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$3.24
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $34.78
- Potential payout
- $38.86
- Potential profit
- $4.08
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $4.86
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.82
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.73
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.42
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.11
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.77
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $6.12
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.95
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.14
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.71
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$13.83
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$125.64
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$129.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Yes 50% 200 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 71% 26 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 58% 219.51 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No 89% 152.94 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No 44% 20 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 78% 65.47 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 78% 128.2 shares
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Yes 53% 185.62 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 98.2% 81.47 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 69% 108.7 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes 92% 160.02 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 75% 105.66 shares