Yes position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $2.16
- Potential payout
- $863.86
- Potential profit
- $861.7
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$29.35
Polymarket Trader
Judea-Pearl
0x4e94d9cef322b96fe4aa8a8fdbfe20e15bd0d649
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $470.78
- Realized PnL
- $885.31
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.07
- Potential payout
- $714
- Potential profit
- $712.93
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$14.07
Yes position
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $5.38
- Potential payout
- $598.03
- Potential profit
- $592.65
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$5.03
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.83
- Potential payout
- $552.67
- Potential profit
- $551.84
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$14.31
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $64.8
- Potential payout
- $479.97
- Potential profit
- $415.17
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $2.4
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $69.42
- Potential payout
- $396.67
- Potential profit
- $327.25
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$6.32
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $65.4
- Potential payout
- $335.39
- Potential profit
- $269.99
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$79.95
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $39.89
- Potential payout
- $295.47
- Potential profit
- $255.58
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$43.99
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $13.52
- Potential payout
- $245.88
- Potential profit
- $232.36
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$21.7
Yes position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $237.32
- Potential profit
- $236.73
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$79.26
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $14.12
- Potential payout
- $166.14
- Potential profit
- $152.02
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$1.73
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.6%
- Current value
- $80.45
- Potential payout
- $153.1
- Potential profit
- $72.65
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $12.31
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $32.78
- Potential payout
- $139.48
- Potential profit
- $106.7
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $9.5
- Potential payout
- $90.88
- Potential profit
- $81.38
- Multiplier
- 9.57x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.26
- Potential payout
- $88.05
- Potential profit
- $87.79
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$32.88
Yes position
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $1.69
- Potential payout
- $86.71
- Potential profit
- $85.02
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$2.37
Yes position
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $18
- Potential payout
- $79.98
- Potential profit
- $61.98
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $4.36
- Potential payout
- $79.98
- Potential profit
- $75.62
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- -$16.92
No position
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $5.19
- Potential payout
- $69.19
- Potential profit
- $64
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$4.87
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $10.46
- Potential payout
- $67.47
- Potential profit
- $57.01
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.91
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $18.13
- Potential payout
- $59.43
- Potential profit
- $41.3
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$1.46
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.58
- Potential payout
- $58.29
- Potential profit
- $57.71
- Multiplier
- 100.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.62
Yes position
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $8.96
- Potential payout
- $57.78
- Potential profit
- $48.82
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $3.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $46.75
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.83
No position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $76.02
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.32
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.39
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.48
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 6?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.7
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.47
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.41
No position
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- $34.78
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.78
No position
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.13
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.49
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8?
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.18
No position
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 46%
- Multiplier
- 2.17x
- User PnL
- $23.95
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.35
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $23.03
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.68
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.05
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.36
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.75
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.7
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.3%
- Multiplier
- 4.12x
- User PnL
- $19.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 52.5% 5.9 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 25% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Yes 4% 4.66 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No 52% 1.39 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?No 39% 4 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?No 21% 0.93 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 39% 39.94 shares
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 23.3% 97.15 shares
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 2.2% 150 shares
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 2.2% 225 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 16% 13.33 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 16% 13.33 shares