Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $181.17
- Potential payout
- $683.66
- Potential profit
- $502.49
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$18.83
Polymarket Trader
mocapbear
0x4ea6d9bbb8d54f0686ccd15dc4b6e8665ac3d5e9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2K
- Realized PnL
- $54.39
- Win rate
- 42.9%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 21
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Current value
- $366.6
- Potential payout
- $539.12
- Potential profit
- $172.52
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $36.6
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $100
- Potential payout
- $312.51
- Potential profit
- $212.5
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $219.91
- Potential payout
- $289.36
- Potential profit
- $69.45
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $19.91
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $246.87
- Potential payout
- $285.4
- Potential profit
- $38.53
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$3.13
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.8%
- Current value
- $26.92
- Potential payout
- $276.09
- Potential profit
- $249.17
- Multiplier
- 10.26x
- User PnL
- $1.92
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $151.06
- Potential payout
- $211.27
- Potential profit
- $60.21
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $1.06
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $209.2
- Potential payout
- $210.89
- Potential profit
- $1.69
- User PnL
- $9.2
No position
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.2%
- Current value
- $178.28
- Potential payout
- $195.48
- Potential profit
- $17.2
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$1.72
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.4%
- Current value
- $14.74
- Potential payout
- $175.44
- Potential profit
- $160.7
- Multiplier
- 11.90x
- User PnL
- $4.74
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $100.63
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $24.38
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $99.16
- Potential payout
- $113.98
- Potential profit
- $14.82
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.84
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $107.3
- Potential payout
- $112.36
- Potential profit
- $5.06
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $7.3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $69.57
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $67.2
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.78
No position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.62
No position
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.35
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.7
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.7
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.08
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Multiplier
- 28.57x
- User PnL
- -$0.64
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- -$3.74
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$4.17
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$9.74
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$14.87
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- -$26.78
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$44.17
No position
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- -$48.49
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$48.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 87% 114.94 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No 76% 129.87 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 17.9% 92.11 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 18% 92.11 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 80% 125 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes 29.3% 683.66 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?No 75.2% 385.93 shares
- Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?No 69% 43.48 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5?Yes 46% 315.49 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?Yes 3.1% 618.18 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?Yes 17% 373.94 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?Yes 18% 373.94 shares