No position
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60.59
- Potential profit
- $60.59
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
MARCO.D.SMOKE
0x4ea8fc480ea2e3cd94ac937830e826cc979d859a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $88.12
- Realized PnL
- $82.16
- Win rate
- 65%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $2.72
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $52.83
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$7.28
No position
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $27.23
- Potential payout
- $55
- Potential profit
- $27.78
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$8.67
No position
Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $44
- Potential profit
- $44
- User PnL
- -$30.8
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $35.69
- Potential payout
- $40.32
- Potential profit
- $4.64
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $10.69
Yes position
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?
Ends Sep 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.88
- Potential profit
- $37.88
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Trump ends taxes on tips before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.76
- Potential profit
- $30.76
- User PnL
- -$20.3
No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $17.54
- Potential payout
- $27.62
- Potential profit
- $10.08
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $5.94
No position
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $19.23
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $4.95
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $5.05
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.85
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31
Yes position
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.24
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.28
No position
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.09
No position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.28
Yes position
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.23
No position
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12
No position
Iran strike on Israel before December?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.41
Yes position
Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.06
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.13
No position
Ripple ETF approved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.12
No position
Solana all time high before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.06
Yes position
Will Trump do better with Latinos than in 2020?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.46
Yes position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.24
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.95
No position
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?
Ends Jun 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18.8
Yes position
State wide recount in Presidential Election?
Ends Dec 17, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Trump out as President before GTA VI?No 50% 15 shares
- Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025?No 70% 44 shares
- US recession by end of 2026?No 62% 40.32 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No 42% 47.62 shares
- Trump out as President before GTA VI?No 71% 13.04 shares
- New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?No 58% 3.1 shares
- Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November?No 97.9% 59.34 shares
- Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September?No 40% 25 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?Yes 18% 55.56 shares
- Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?No 16.5% 60.59 shares
- Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?Yes 66% 37.88 shares
- Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?No 26% 19.23 shares