Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.7%
- Current value
- $38.65
- Potential payout
- $305.56
- Potential profit
- $266.9
- Multiplier
- 7.91x
- User PnL
- -$16.35
Polymarket Trader
marcba
0x4ec04aafb5eac8aadd0b10e321694872aaff63d6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $61.87
- Realized PnL
- -$216.77
- Win rate
- 20%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $4.12
- Potential payout
- $92.59
- Potential profit
- $88.47
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.8%
- Current value
- $8.65
- Potential payout
- $62.89
- Potential profit
- $54.25
- Multiplier
- 7.27x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $10.45
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $7.41
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $0.45
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.9
No position
Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.77
No position
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.47
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 14?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.87
Yes position
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.6
Yes position
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.22
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$4.14
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.6
No position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.84
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$11.11
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13.87
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18
No position
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$22.56
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$23.18
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$39.65
Yes position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$59
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 56% 17.86 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 18% 305.56 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14?No 46% 23.01 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 14?Yes 23% 23.45 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 14?Yes 23% 43 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14?No 64% 23.02 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 14?Yes 21.7% 66.46 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 13?Yes 9.1% 47.73 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 13?Yes 21% 45.74 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 13?No 69% 14.27 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 13?Yes 10.2% 93.84 shares
- Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?No 52.2% 38.3 shares